Over the weekend, the sun—which is currently experiencing an active phase of Solar Cycle 25—emitted another powerful flare, providing Americans with yet another opportunity to witness the northern lights.
The Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA announced on Saturday that an X4.5 solar flare had been found. The agency released footage of the flare, capturing what seems to be the sun spitting forth solar debris.
Experts in space weather measurement find that X-class flares are the strongest; the largest flare ever observed was an X45 flare found in 2003. The strongest flare since an X8.2 flare in 2017 was an X5 flare that the SWPC recorded on December 21, 2023.
After describing Saturday’s flare as “generally not common, although not necessarily unusual,” the SWPC stated that significant, G3-level geomagnetic storms are expected to occur on Sunday and Monday.
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The organization issued a warning that certain users (such as emergency management) of high-frequency communication bands would experience “strong degradation or signal loss.” The government also stated that there might be effects on spacecraft, electrical systems, navigation, and GPS systems—all of which experts say are ready for such occurrences. The northern lights can shine as a result of the storm.
When the sun’s rays strike our magnetic field, they release plasma and magnetic material that shoots particles toward the poles and ignites the northern lights. These particles can react with nitrogen and oxygen in our atmosphere to produce surplus energy that we see as flashes of light. The gases at play and the location of the action give rise to the colors that we perceive.
When measuring geomagnetic storms caused by solar flares, the SWPC uses a five-point scale, with a G3 storm landing in the middle of the range. The SWPC’s forecast indicates that this storm might deliver the northern lights as far south as Illinois and Oregon, as storms of this strength have been known to do.
The SWPC’s forecast, shown below, indicates that the aurora may be visible in at least 22 states on Sunday night, including Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.
The likelihood of witnessing the northern lights is highest in the red areas and lowest in the green areas. The aurora may be visible along the northern horizon for people who live at or close to the red line, sometimes referred to as the view line. However, you might have to rely on your smartphone to see them.
Resource: The northern lights are forecast for Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024. (NOAA SWPC)
The SWPC predicts that Monday morning’s greatest storming, which may also be the best time to see the northern lights, will start at 1 a.m. ET and get better around 4 a.m. ET. Regretfully, when the sun rises, the likelihood of witnessing the northern lights is likely to decrease.
According to the SWPC forecast, conditions should deteriorate into Monday night. They might still be powerful enough to reach southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa with the northern lights. Though space weather forecasts are subject to quick changes, there’s a chance that Monday night’s auroral viewing conditions will improve.
We also know that solar activity will probably continue for the next one to two years. The sun is currently undergoing Solar Cycle 25, a dynamic pattern in which it reverses its poles. Researchers predict that as that 11-year cycle draws to a close, there will be more powerful solar storms and, ideally, more powerful displays of the northern lights.
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